NCAA Preview and bracket breakdown
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It’s the best week of the year! The field includes 6 returning finalists that are seeded 4th or lower so how it all shakes out is anyone's guess. Below I breakdown what the top team title contenders need at each weight and go through all 10 brackets while taking a wild guess at picking winners. Download this week's podcast to hear Kevin and Tommy selections, its so jammed packed they talk wrestling in the first 10 minutes.
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Team Race
Penn State’s title hopes don’t rest on the health of Nick Suriano, but if he is healthy enough to make the finals or even become an All-American, Penn State should cruise to the team title. Anything Ohio St. can get from Jose Rodriguez will be gravy. Oklahoma State’s hopes for a title involve them putting 8-10 guys on the podium and that is Nick Piccininni’s goal. It is difficult to see a path for Iowa to win the team title if Thomas Gilman doesn’t have his hand raised in the end.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
Thomas Gilman has been on a role this year after finishing runner-up last year and should make it to Saturday’s night. An interesting style match-up with NDSU’s Josh Rodriguez would make for a fun quarters. He should have either Darian Cruz or Tim Lambert in the semis, but neither should stop him from making a return trip to the finals.
Bottom Half
Suriano’s injury is the question of this draw and if he can’t make a deep run it will open the bracket up. Top specialist Ethan Lizak could benefit but may not be well rounded enough for his own deep run. Joey Dance is looking to overcome back-to-back disappointing NCAAs. Dance has a tough match up Thursday night with two-time AA Connor Youtsey. If anyone does falter, keep an eye out for American’s Josh Terao whose style will be a match up problem for any opponent.
Pick: Gilman over Terao
133
Team Race
Ohio State’s chances at a team title rely on big points from 5-6 individual and Tomasello will look to do his part. Kaid Brock and Cory Clark will both look to aid Oklahoma St and Iowa respectively. Iowa will need Clark to return to the finals for a third year in a row. If Brock can wrestle to or above his seed Oklahoma State will be feeling good.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
The top 4 finishers in the Big 10 all landed in the top half of the bracket and despite Tomasello’s dominance, it is not hard to see either Michigan’s Steven Micic or Clark giving him all he can handle.
Bottom Half
The top two in the Big 12 occupy the 2 and 3 seeds and could be on a collision course in the semis. Watch out for Nebraska’s Eric Montoya who avoids his Big 10 brethren who are all on the top half. Montoya has beaten Seth Gross already and might spoil the Big 12 party.
Pick: Clark over Brock
141
Team Race
Dean Heil is the only major threat among the team title hopefuls but team titles are often won by guys who are not expected to AA making a run to the podium. That fits PSU’s Guilibon, OSU’s Luke Pletcher and Iowa’s Topher Carton.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
Heil wrestles a lot of close matches, but always comes out on top. Anthony Ashnault and Matt Kolodzik should be a great quarterfinal and expect the winner to give Heil another close match.
Bottom Half
NC State’s Kevin Jack enters the tournament with only 1 loss and hoping to not only make the finals but take home the title. Likewise, Stanford Joey McKenna enters with 1 loss and similar aspirations. Last year’s finalist Bryce Meredith is the 10 seed and would love nothing more than the opportunity to face his former teammate Jack in the quarters and I am sure Jack wouldn’t mind the opportunity for revenge after falling to him in New York.
Pick: Jack over Heil
149
Team Race
PSU finally brings out the big guns starting with Zain Retherford. Oklahoma St. will be thrilled if Anthony Collica wrestles to seed and makes the finals. Ohio St.’s Micah Jordan and Iowa’s Brandon Sorensen will meet in the quarters with big team point implications.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
The winner of the Jordan/Sorensen match will have a tough test with Retherford. Sorensen has presented the better match up for Zain in the regular season but it may not matter as Sorensen has yet to takedown Jordan after 14 minutes of wrestling.
Bottom Half
As mentioned, Collica is the 2 seed but has a tough road to Saturday night. UNI’s Max Thomsen has been wrestling well as of late and could pose a problem in the quarters. Last year’s 3rd place finisher, Lavion Mayes is the MAC champion, and has improved every year at NCAAs, if he continues that trend he will be in the finals.
Pick: Retherford over Collica
157
Team Race
PSU’s title formula includes a lot of bonus points and it would be surprising if Jason Nolf doesn’t provide more than his share. Oklahoma State’s Joe Smith looked better in the Big 12 tournament than he did earlier in the year, if he can achieve a top 4 finish it would be a boost to the Cowboys. Michael Kemerer will need to make the finals if Iowa’s has any chance in the team race.
Bracket breakdown
Top Half
The question is who will Jason Nolf have to go through more than if Jason Nolf will make it through the top half the bracket. Joe Smith and Tyler Berger will be an action-packed quarter with the winner getting the honor of facing Nolf in the semis.
Bottom Half
Kemerer is the 2 seed and the favorite to make the finals, but he is a freshman and funny things happen to freshman at the NCAAs. If that happens here, Joey Lavallee of Mizzou will hope to take advantage as does Dylan Palacio who looks healthy and has the skill to make a deep run.
Pick: Nolf over Kemerer
165
Team Race
Vincenzo Joseph placed third at Big 10s, which gets him on the opposite side of the bracket from IMAR and increases his chances of advancing farther. Chandler Rodgers comes in as the 9 seed for the Cowboys and is certainly an AA candidate. How high he can get on the podium will play a key role in the Cowboys chances. Iowa and Ohio St. both have qualifiers who are not expected to score much, anything here would be a surprise.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
The top Big 10 finishers are the favorites to reach the semis in both halfs of the bracket. Chad Walsh has the best chance to break through with a quarterfinal against returning finalist Isaac Jordan. Two time defending champion Isaiah Martinez is the heavy favorite to wrestle on Saturday night for the third straight year.
Bottom Half
Mizzou’s Daniel Lewis and ASU’s Anthony Valencia are the best bets on the bottom to prevent an all Big 10 semi. Talented Freshman Logan Massa and Vincenzo Joseph stand in their way and set up an interesting quarterfinal Friday morning.
Pick: Martinez over Massa
174
Team Race
This weight might be the biggest wild card in the team race. All top contenders have AA hopefuls who can wrestle above their seed. Whoever succeeds will give their team crucial points. Bo Jordan (3 seed) has the ability to win it all. No one will be surprised if PSU’s Mark Hall advances far, but like most freshman, consistency is the key. OSU would like Kyle Crutchmer to be on the podium, higher the better. Iowa probably needs returning AA Alex Meyer to make a podium run if they are a serious contender.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
Undefeated freshman Zahid Valencia is the favorite, but faces many speed bumps. Potential quarterfinal with UNC’s Ethan Ramos would be a rematch of the 11-10 Journeyman final. Semifinals should pit him against the winner of the Hall and VT’s Zach Epperly quarterfinal. Both have the ability to come out of the top half.
Bottom Half
Cornell’s Brian Realbuto beat Bo Jordan in the National Duals and earned him the 2 seed. This half of the bracket has Zac Brunson, Kyle Crutchmer and Lehigh’s Ryan Preisch all trying to prevent a Realbuto/BoJo semi.
Pick: Jordan over Valencia
184
Team Race
Bo Nickal was seen as a surefire finalist prior to the Big 10s. He still draws the 2 seed and should provide big points even he loses before the finals. Myles Martin’s victory over Nickal helped OSU win the Big 10 and they will need a similar result this weekend. Nolan Boyd should provide another AA for the Cowboys. Sammy Brooks is the Big 10 champ for the second straight year and he could make a surprising run to the finals to take Iowa from outside looking in to contender.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
It would be the surprise of the tournament if Hodge Trophy contender Gabe Dean doesn’t make the finals. Still the favorite in win the championship, but most of the serious contenders all reside in the bottom half.
Bottom Half
Styles makes fights and wrestling matches. The Big 10s top 4 finishers are the 4 highest seeds on the bottom but the bracket is drawn out differently than in Bloomington so expect a different result. If Brooks can beat Martin again, he will face Nickal who pinned him in 38 seconds the first time. Nickal needs to get by Nebraska’s Tim Dudley, who he was tied with until he a Nickal-esque throw for 6. This should make for fun Friday morning.
Pick: Dean over Nickal
197
Team Race
Ohio State’s Kollin Moore surprised many by winning the Big 10, a trip to Saturday night will be needed for the Buckeyes title hopes. Matt McCutcheon is a rare PSU AA threat who isn’t seen as a title contender, but still provides valuable points. Oklahoma State’s Preston Weigel is seeded 6th and like most Cowboys an AA finish is a must and a place higher on the podium is even better.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
It’s not often you have a returning Olympic medalist in the NCAA tournament. It is even rarer to be one and not have the highest Olympic medal. Regardless, J’Den Cox is the heavy favorite. McCutcheon and VT’s Jared Haught will hope to knock him off in the semis.
Bottom Half
Weigel will look to stop the Buckeye freshman in a critical team race match up in the quarterfinals and prevent a fourth meeting between Moore and Brett Pfarr. Moore improved every meeting with Pfarr and was far better in Bloomington. Expect Pfarr to make the adjustment this time.
Pick: Cox over Pfarr
HWT
Team Race
Ohio State is banking on a Kyle Snyder championship. PSU’s Nick Nevills and Oklahoma State’s Austin Schafer are seeded 5th and 6th respectively and the battle for higher placement will have key implications on the team race.
Bracket Breakdown
Top Half
The Olympic Gold Medalist is the heavy favorite, but don’t overlook Duke’s Jacob Kasper. Kasper has had an excellent season and some think has a Greco background that could neutralize Synder’s offense.
Bottom Half
Connor Medberry’s only defeat was to Snyder. VT’s Ty Walz would love to avenge his sudden victory loss to Medberry at the Cliff Keen. ASU’s Tanner Hall is the wild card in this half who could prevent a Medberry/Walz clash.
Pick: Snyder over Medberry
Team Race Pick
Iowa will need everything to go perfectly for them to have a chance. Oklahoma State will score most of their points in the consolation round with the possibility of 10 All-Americans. Ohio State and Penn State both have the potential to have 5 finalist, but PSU has more room for error. Even if Penn State suffers an upset, they will then get the opportunity for bonus points in the consultation rounds.
1) Penn St. 2) Ohio St. 3) Oklahoma St. 4) Iowa
